The release of today’s GDP figures will
basically allow everyone across the political spectrum to tell the story they
wish to tell.
Growth is back. After 3 quarters of contraction or, as we economists like to
call it, ‘negative growth’ we are back on track to expand. Well, yes and no. A 1.0% bounce is great news, but not
quite enough to completely wipe out the losses of the last year: in Q3 2011,
the index of GDP stood at 103.1 and is now 103. If I were an Olympian having struggled and pushed myself through
12 months of hard training and effort I’d be disappointed not to have improved
my performance even if recent training has been ‘going really well’.
The story of the last 12 months is one of
flat activity. Hmmm. Not so great then.
The winners in the economic race for a
turnaround performance